How we did: strong sell-through, but the season was clearly supply-constrained, not demand-constrained. 8,966 units sold on 10,840 stocked is 82.7% (snapshot tab 1225), which is a good number for seasonal goods. The problem is what is hiding underneath it: 11 of 18 SKUs sold out, and total sales went from 206 units/day through Dec 14 (4,118 units over the 20 days from Nov 24, snapshot tabs 1124 and 1214) down to 90 units/day after that (986 units over the final 11 days to Dec 25, snapshot tabs 1214 and 1225). Demand did not fall in the final Christmas week. We simply ran out of the best sellers.
Almost all the leftover inventory is one product: of the 1,874 unsold units, 1,581 (84%) is the Bowtie Red Christmas Plaid, which sold only 2,219 of 3,800 stocked, 58.4% (snapshot tab 1225). Strip that one overbuy out and the rest of the line sold through at 95.8% (6,747 of 7,040 units, snapshot tab 1225 net of the Bowtie).
Cumulative units sold across the snapshot tabs. The line should keep climbing through the final week if demand were being met. Instead it flattens hard after Dec 14, the signature of running out of stock during peak.
Source: weekly snapshot tabs 1124 through 1225. Flattening tail = stockouts, not softening demand.
Pulled live from Amazon's FBA Inventory Ledger via the eComHD data warehouse (table raw.inventory_ledger_summary, the 18 tie ASINs, seller ecomhd_us). This is independent of the Google sheet and dates every unit received and shipped by month.
| Month (2025) | Units received | Units sold | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| September | 620 | 219 | Early trickle. |
| October | 5,632 | 496 | First big wave lands. Demand still quiet. |
| November | 4,707 | 4,399 | Second wave lands as demand explodes. |
| December | 79 | 5,019 | Biggest sales month, almost zero replenishment. |
| Total Sep to Dec (raw.inventory_ledger_summary) | 11,038 | 10,133 |
The ledger does not support "inventory arrived super late." It points at something more fixable. 5,632 units landed in October and 4,707 in November (raw.inventory_ledger_summary), so more than half the stock was in Amazon's warehouse before November even started. The initial arrival was reasonably timed.
The real failure was December: 5,019 units sold, the single biggest month, against only 79 units received (raw.inventory_ledger_summary). Once a SKU sold through, there was no December shipment to refill it during the peak week. Let it Snow is the clearest case: its full 249 units were received across October and November, it sold 253 in November, then shipped 0 in December because there was nothing left (raw.inventory_ledger_summary). It missed the entire peak.
So the fix for 2026 is not just "order earlier." It is two things: bigger initial buys on the proven winners, and a planned December replenishment timed to land in early December so the peak week is covered. (Caveat: the 2025 ledger is monthly, so I cannot see the exact day within a month that stock went live. Daily inventory history only exists in the warehouse from Apr 2026 forward.)
Sorted by sell-through. Anything in the red band sold out and left demand on the table. The gray band is where we overbought.
| SKU | Product | Stocked | Sold | % Sold | Left | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10679 | Tie - Let it Snow | 253 | 253 | 100% | 0 | Sold out before Nov 24. Most starved SKU in the line. |
| 10540 | Tie - Red Christmas Plaid | 2,000 | 2,016 | 100.8% | 0 | Top volume winner. Sold out and then some. |
| 10953 | Tie - O Christmas Tree | 500 | 503 | 100.6% | 0 | Sold out. |
| 10952 | Tie - Snowflakes on Parade | 556 | 558 | 100.4% | 0 | Sold out. |
| 10871 | Tie - Mean Green | 57 | 57 | 100% | 0 | Sold out, but a tiny test quantity. |
| 10955 | Tie - Preppy Reindeer | 104 | 104 | 100% | 0 | Sold out on a small stock position. |
| 10685 | Tie - Ho Ho Ho! | 294 | 294 | 100% | 0 | Sold out by ~Dec 12. |
| 10594 | Tie - Christmas Tree - Navy Blue | 486 | 485 | 99.8% | 1 | Effectively sold out. |
| 10947 | Tie - Santa and Friends | 446 | 436 | 97.8% | 10 | Sold out for practical purposes. |
| 10678 | Tie - Lit Like a Tree | 500 | 489 | 97.8% | 11 | Sold out for practical purposes. |
| 10686 | Tie - Tropical XMAS | 292 | 282 | 96.6% | 10 | All but sold out. |
| 10872 | Tie - Jingle Jaws | 250 | 224 | 89.6% | 26 | Healthy clear, light leftover. |
| 10951 | Tie - Made For Christmas | 500 | 417 | 83.4% | 83 | Solid, finished near clear. |
| 10681 | Tie - Berry Blue Christmas | 127 | 105 | 82.7% | 22 | On pace, minor leftover. |
| 10597 | Tie - Snowflakes - Red & White | 441 | 347 | 78.7% | 94 | Slight overbuy. |
| 10957 | Tie - Santa is Coming | 234 | 177 | 75.6% | 57 | Underperformer. |
| 10682 | Tie - Jolly the Snowman | 566 | 373 | 65.9% | 193 | Slow mover, real leftover. |
| 10039 | Bowtie - Red Christmas Plaid | 3,800 | 2,219 | 58.4% | 1,581 | The overbuy. 84% of all unsold units sit here. |
| Total (snapshot tab 1225) | 10,840 | 8,966 | 82.7% | 1,874 | ||
My recommended allocation, not the sheet's. The rule: sellouts get a real bump because their true demand was capped by stock, on-pace SKUs hold roughly flat, the two slow movers get cut, and the big Bowtie overbuy gets reined in toward what actually sold. Sold figures are sourced; the proposed column is my judgment with the growth assumption stated per row.
| SKU | Product | 2025 Sold | Proposed 2026 | Move | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10540 | Tie - Red Christmas Plaid | 2,016 | 3,000 | +49% | Top seller, sold out. Grow it hard. |
| 10039 | Bowtie - Red Christmas Plaid | 2,219 | 2,200 | flat | Real #1 in raw units, but cap near what sold. No more 1,500-unit leftovers. |
| 10952 | Tie - Snowflakes on Parade | 558 | 800 | +43% | Sold out, proven demand. |
| 10953 | Tie - O Christmas Tree | 503 | 750 | +49% | Sold out. |
| 10678 | Tie - Lit Like a Tree | 489 | 750 | +53% | Sold out, held flat last year and stocked out. Fix that. |
| 10594 | Tie - Christmas Tree - Navy Blue | 485 | 700 | +44% | Sold out. |
| 10947 | Tie - Santa and Friends | 436 | 650 | +49% | Sold out. (Sheet had this cut to 250, which looked like an error.) |
| 10679 | Tie - Let it Snow | 253 | 600 | +137% | Most supply-starved SKU, gone before tracking. Biggest upside. |
| 10685 | Tie - Ho Ho Ho! | 294 | 500 | +70% | Sold out. (Sheet had this at 0.) |
| 10686 | Tie - Tropical XMAS | 282 | 450 | +60% | All but sold out. |
| 10951 | Tie - Made For Christmas | 417 | 450 | +8% | Finished near clear, hold roughly flat. |
| 10597 | Tie - Snowflakes - Red & White | 347 | 375 | +8% | Slight overbuy last year, keep level. |
| 10872 | Tie - Jingle Jaws | 224 | 300 | +34% | Cleared at 90%, modest growth. |
| 10955 | Tie - Preppy Reindeer | 104 | 200 | +92% | Sold out on a small base, room to scale. |
| 10871 | Tie - Mean Green | 57 | 150 | +163% | Sold out tiny test, scale up to a real position. |
| 10681 | Tie - Berry Blue Christmas | 105 | 150 | +43% | On pace, small grow. |
| 10682 | Tie - Jolly the Snowman | 373 | 0 | cut | 66% sell-through, real leftover. Drop or clear. |
| 10957 | Tie - Santa is Coming | 177 | 0 | cut | Worst performer after the Bowtie. Drop. |
| Total (sold: tab 1225; proposed: my plan, assumption) | 8,966 | 12,025 | +34% | Sum of the proposed column, hits the ~12,000 goal. | |
For 2026: the buy plan above hits ~12,000 by growing the proven sellouts, capping the Bowtie at what it actually sold, and cutting the two laggards. The single biggest lever is not the order quantity though, it is timing. Order early and get it landed before Thanksgiving so the full demand window is open, because this season the constraint was stock on the shelf, not shoppers.